ASUNCION, Dec 1 (NNN-MERCOPRESS) — Paraguay faces an impending demographic transition that will see its adult elderly population double within the next 25 years due to the accelerated aging of its currently large youth segment, according to warnings from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).
Sabrina Juran, a German development sociologist and UNFPA Regional Advisor for Population Dynamics, stresses that the government must implement anticipatory policies now to prevent a potential crisis and a significant reduction in the quality of life for its inhabitants.
Juran noted that Paraguay is still experiencing a demographic dividend, a period when the share of the working-age population (typically 15 to 64 years old) is larger than the non-working-age share (children and the elderly). It is a window of opportunity where a country has more people contributing to the economy than consuming resources as dependents.
”This dividend is something economically tangible that a country can truly take advantage of, but the country can take advantage of it if its young population is truly well situated in society and in the labor market,” the German specialist pointed out.
According to the 2022 census, 66% of Paraguay’s population is active (working-age) and only 33% is dependent. This “window of opportunity” is closing, Juran underlined. The large young generation today “will no longer be so young” in 25 years.
The country’s total fertility rate has dropped sharply over the last 75 years, from 6.5 children per woman in 1950 to the current 1.9, which represents a pace faster than those recorded elsewhere.
In Juran’s view, the most critical factor is that the government must ensure the active participation and economic security of its young population to truly capitalize on the demographic dividend. This requires investment in health, education, and formal labor market integration.
Juran specifically highlighted the immense risk posed by the country’s high labor informality rate. “If countries do not invest at least in these three areas, this demographic dividend is at risk. An economic benefit cannot truly be reaped because we have a well-educated young population, but the labor market, which is 63% informal, is neither integrating them nor taking advantage of their good education.”
According to Juran, the decrease in the number of children women are having is linked to various factors, such as a poor healthcare system for both children and elderly parents, economic instability —including access to housing—, a heavy burden of domestic work and caregiving, as well as geopolitical uncertainty mixed with climate change concerns.
“The drop in fertility in our region has been accelerated compared to other regions of the world. There are countries where it dropped faster than in Paraguay, but there are also countries that are reducing it more slowly,” she explained.
Juran urged governments to provide greater guarantees and protections across all generations to prepare for the transition and avoid a future crisis. — NNN-MERCOPRESS