WASHINGTON, Apr 6 (NNN-AGENCIES) – U.S. Federal Reserve Governor, Lael Brainard, said, it is “of paramount importance” to get inflation down, noting that the central bank is “prepared to take stronger action,” if inflation indicators show such action is warranted.
“Currently, inflation is much too high and is subject to upside risks,” Brainard, U.S. President Joe Biden’s nominee, to serve as the central bank’s vice chair, said, in prepared remarks at a virtual event, held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
“All Americans are confronting higher prices, but the burden is particularly great for households with more limited resources,” Brainard said, noting that, lower-income households “disproportionately” feel the burden of high inflation.
Lower-income families expend a greater share of their income on necessities, have smaller financial cushions, and may have less ability to switch to lower-priced alternatives, she said.
U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, surged 6.4 percent in Feb, over the past year, the Commerce Department reported last week. The index is well above the Federal Reserve’s two percent target on inflation.
The core PCE, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, was up 5.4 percent in Feb, from the same period last year, marking the biggest jump in nearly four decades.
Despite downside risks, posed by geopolitical events, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S. economy entered this period of uncertainty “with considerable momentum in demand and a strong labour market,” Brainard noted.
As of the Mar labour report, payroll employment has increased at a pace of 600,000 jobs per month, over the past six months, and the unemployment rate has fallen by a percentage point, she noted. Latest data from the Labour Department showed that, the unemployment rate in Mar dropped by 0.2 percentage point to 3.6 percent, just slightly above the pre-pandemic level of 3.5 percent.
Noting that the recovery in labour force participation was “lagging far behind” until recently, the Fed official said, the pandemic constraints on labour supply are diminishing for the prime-age workforce. The labour force participation rate was at 62.4 percent in Mar, still one percentage point below the pre-pandemic level of 63.4 percent.
“An increase in labour supply associated with diminishing pandemic constraints, combined with a moderation in demand, associated with tightening financial conditions, slowing foreign growth, and a large decrease in fiscal support, could be expected to reduce (labour market) imbalances later in the year,” Brainard said.
The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy-making body, will continue tightening monetary policy methodically, through a series of interest rate increases and by starting to reduce the balance sheet at a rapid pace, as soon as its May meeting, Brainard said.
Given that the recovery has been considerably stronger and faster than in the previous cycle, Brainard said, she expected the balance sheet to shrink considerably more rapidly than in the previous recovery.
At its Mar policy meeting, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent from near zero, marking its first rate hike since 2018, and a major step in exiting from the ultra-loose monetary policy enacted at the start of the pandemic.
Several Fed officials, including Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, have recently signaled their willingness to support a 0.5-percentage point rate hike at the central bank’s May policy meeting, instead of a traditional quarter-point increase.– NNN-AGENCIES
